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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to take up the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in France, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly split into three warring blocs – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he faced fury from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS explicitly warned that it would be demanding further compromises. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would lose seats, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a thing of the past, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”