Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The average number of per-day killings monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh official figures. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded over these months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Greater coordination between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, security researchers urged caution that using murder statistics to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the rise in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was additionally concerning because it might hide days when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.