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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.